Friday, March 22, 2013

How much could one Bitcoin eventually be worth - a gold comparison

In a later post I'll explain why I think Bitcoin is currently like (a very volatile version of) gold, and why I think that will change in the future. But for now, make the assumption that Bitcoin will be used like gold to "store value" in the near future. How much could one Bitcoin then eventually be worth?

A quick search on Wikipedia shows that there are about 170,000 tonnes of mined gold in the world. We don't have to be more accurate than that for this "back of an envelope" estimation. And a gram of gold currently sells for about 40 euros. So the total value of gold in the world is about 7 trillion euros.

The current Bitcoin scheme determines that the maximum total number of Bitcoins is 21 million. If Bitcoin became as valuable as gold then a simple division shows that one Bitcoin could be worth about a third of million Euros.

The smallest unit of Bitcoin is the Satoshi, which is 0.00000001 Bitcoins. So in the above case, a Satoshi would be worth about a third of a Euro cent. Therefore by that point we'd probably be inventing a name for one hundred Satoshis.

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